KUALA LUMPUR: Political analysts have poured cold water on Pas election director Datuk Seri Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor's confidence that the Islamist party is able to outdo its 15th general election (GE15) victory in the upcoming Kemaman parliamentary by-election in Terengganu.
Apart from the expected drop in the voter turnout, they cited the issue surrounding the support by the four Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) members of parliament towards the leadership of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim may put a dent in Pas' ambitious target of increasing its majority of more than 30,000 votes in the Dec 2 by-election.
They added that Barisan Nasional (BN), which is fielding former Armed Forces chief General (R) Tan Sri Raja Mohamed Affandi Raja Mohamed Noor, is expected to pose a strong challenge and has the potential to deny Pas of securing a landslide victory.
Associate Professor Dr Mazlan Ali expected a slight change in the mood and situation during the parliamentary by-election in comparison to GE15, which concluded in November last year.
He pointed out that Kemaman was previously a BN-stronghold before the parliamentary constituency fell to Pas in the 2018 general election and continues to be retained by the Islamist party in GE15.
"In GE15, Perikatan Nasional (PN) through Pas managed to retain the seat with more than 27,000 in majority votes thanks to young voters returning home to vote during the general election.
"I do not think that Pas can either outdo its performance or pull a repeat of its GE15 victory since it is unlikely that young voters will return home to vote and the fact that voters amongst adults and senior citizens as well as non-Malays in Kemaman will mostly throw their support in favour of candidates representing parties aligned with the unity government.
"Having said that, Pas will likely retain the parliamentary constituency during the Nov 18 by-election but with a reduced majority," said Mazlan, who is a lecturer at Universiti Teknologi Malaysia's Razak Faculty of Technology and Informatics.
Universiti Malaya political analyst, Dr Mohammad Tawfiq Yaakub, concurred with Mazlan when he said it was premature for Pas and PN to be optimistic and overconfident in their chances of obtaining a massive win in the Kemaman by-election.
"Pas and PN should remember that Kemaman was previously a parliamentary seat won by BN. Furthermore, there has been a drop in voter turnout during the by-elections held after GE15 and the state elections on Aug 12.
"Anything can happen and I do not think Pas and PN can meet their target of increasing their vote majority to more than 30,000 during the Kemaman by-election," he said.
The decision by the four Bersatu MPs who have pledged their support for Anwar and the unity government, said Tawfiq, has not only created confusion among the people in the country, including those residing in Kemaman, but also may influence the mood and sentiments of 144,790 voters at the parliamentary constituency.
"Voters who are disappointed with such a development may think twice before casting their votes for PN. They will ask what is the point of voting for PN if there is a possibility that the candidate, if he or she wins the by-election, decides to adopt a change in their political support.
"This will provide an advantage to Umno and BN in the by-election. However, this is unlikely to be the main reason which will compel or persuade voters to reject PN during the by-election," he said.
Both political analysts believed that Umno is fielding a strong and formidable candidate in Raja Mohamed Affandi, who with the backing of a united BN and Pakatan Harapan (PH) machinery, may create an upset against Pas and PN.
