Contemplate the Malay saying: in a brawl between two elephants, the mousedeer stuck in between will be crushed to death. This perfectly fits Malaysia's position as we navigate delicately between the United States and China in their battle for global political, military and economic supremacy.
Nations dependent on the US or China for trade and aid will be squeezed, especially if they desperately try to maintain neutrality. The only leverage Malaysia possesses is our strategic geolocation — co-authority on passages and access to the Strait of Malacca and South China Sea — that we play against the two tussling behemoths.
While Malaysia politely declined the US's push for a naval or military base in Lumut decades ago, we have wholly embraced this partner, boosting trade, investment, security, environmental cooperation and educational and cultural relations.
These investments empower Malaysia in semiconductor and computer chip manufacturing, while we reciprocate in collaborating in the US's war on terror. China may not be as insistent, but it still pours hundreds of billions into infrastructure megaprojects that augment ties going back centuries.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim remains tactful of this sensitive US-Malaysia-China relationship, maintaining China's "important neighbour" status, while acknowledging the US's desire to dictate our relations with China.
Another geopolitical balancing act in Malaysia's favour is our adherence to Asean's doctrine of neutrality and emphasis on economic, trade and investment enhancements.
The US understands that they cannot aggressively compel Malaysia to pick a side, primarily because of China's keen influence on Malaysia's diplomatic compass. However, in recent years, US-China relations have reached the point where maintaining neutrality is tenuous.
While stakes in the global economy remain fluid, the US has upped the ante by banning the sale of computer chips, especially those driving artificial intelligence, to Chinese tech giants.
On suspicion of espionage, a major Chinese corporation and its products were banned in US markets, tariffs were slapped on key Chinese goods and lately, TikTok's American dominance will cease unless its parent company, ByteDance, is taken over by American investors.
Then there's this: the US is decoupling trade from China, but all it triggered was economic blowback against Indo-Pacific nations. China can still play this huge hand: calling the US$859 billion the US owes to Chinese banks.
Nobody thinks China will ever do it, but the threat lingers as a Chinese "last resort", though doing so risks a greenback depreciation that over-strengthens the yuan, spiking prices of Chinese goods, thus defeating the advantage of low-cost Chinese manufacturing. That's that. What's left is the international relations agreements "guiding" the two titans, but ones that no global institution, not even the United Nations, can enforce. It's a truism obvious to everyone playing this game of fragile balance.
