THE excessive speculation about the parliamentary dissolution date, from highly probable weeks ago to a sure thing the Thursday before the 2023 Budget's tabling, has predictably ended in a flat climax.
If previous years conjectures were amusing parlour games because the sitting prime minister was powerfully unmoved, the sport this time has perilous political ramifications, one that risks a collapse of Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob's delicately configured administration.
To be sure, powerful and influential movers and shakers were adamant that the 15th General Election (GE15) should and would be called only next year, possibly to the term's expiration.
The prime minister agrees, sensibly derailing the "D-Day is Today" roller-coaster to trigger the GE15 countdown, this after his audience with the Yang di-Pertuan Agong: reports ranged from the king sounding no objections to an immediate dissolution to the audience was a routine pre-cabinet briefing.
Still, the confabulation boiled over to the point where the political players and punditry were either mesmerised or deluded: one daily vernacular boldly front-paged "Is Dissolution Day today?" but got thrown an egg in the face. No doubt they'll make another cameo to second guess the prime minister.
But here's the galling sideshow: 12 Perikatan Nasional cabinet ministers spearheaded by Pas leaders snuck behind the prime minister's back to submit a letter to the king, urging him NOT to consent to a snap GE15 just to appease animated politicians losing their minds over the prime minister's teasing.
This backhanded move implied that the 12 recklessly undermined the prime minister's authority, with designs to make him look weak.
Here's a thought: the prime minister is empowered to fire the lot, except that the firing could trigger yet another monumental collapse of the administration, with added dire consequences.
In this ambiguous political epoch, rude is the blase manner in which the prime minister's unique prerogative is undercut but he has shown the stones to not capitulate to the agitated Umno base and neither will he succumb to his allies' jackboot sleight of hands.
Nonetheless, the prime minister's consistent defiance of unimaginable pressure to dissolve Parliament during the monsoon season is clear: he won't be pinned to the wall, especially when he's trying hard to not get sucked into political purgatory.
So, the eternal question: What is the prime minister's conception of the perfect dissolution date? Here's a case to call it before Christmas this year, not withstanding the intense "bubar (dissolution) lobby".
The previous 14 general elections (between 1959 and 2018) were held on these months — April, May and August (thrice), March (twice) and July, October and November (once). For the factoid-obsessed crowd: on Saturdays (7), Mondays (3), and Wednesdays and Sundays (2).
GE8 (1990) and GE10 (1999) were held late in the year, Oct 20 and Nov 29, respectively, so the bubar overtures to brave the monsoon and wade flood waters are impractical but not that far-fetched.
Note that despite the 1990 (rise of Semangat 46) and 1999 (reformasi demonstrations) political turbulence, the ruling administration still returned with a super majority although it later surrendered ground in several states.
Then there's the probability of a weighty global recession, stemming from the inflationary economic environment provoked by predictive rising crude oil prices and further ringgit depreciation against the greenback — it tends to mess up election campaigns.
Here's the apposite justification to hold GE15 sooner than later: full attention should gear towards weathering economic turmoil next year, but with the general election wrapped up, Putrajaya can't be distracted from governing with some measure of political stability.
The prime minister is wary of potential possibilities and pitfalls in his equation/inspiration to formulate his ideal dissolution date.
Unless he has an unseen, revolutionary line of attack in determining D-Day. Or certain pre-requisites must fall in place first before he makes his call.
What a tale the prime minister will tell after this fuss of a lumbering reality show passes.
The writer is an award winning 40-year veteran journalist/commentator who has retired but still works the news
