KUALA LUMPUR: Gerakan'S entry into Perikatan Nasional (PN) before the Chinese New Year celebration has led political observers to wonder if the multiracial party could help the ruling coalition
win the 15th General Election (GE15).
In a recent statement, Gerakan pledged to work with PN component parties to establish a people's government that prioritised (the public's) wellbeing and moderation.
Despite the pledge, political analysts believed that the only way Gerakan could achieve this was if Barisan Nasional (BN) refused to cooperate with PN in GE15.
National Professors Council chairman Professor Datuk Dr Shamsul Amri Baharuddin said with MCA in the picture, Gerakan would be left to defend only the "kamikaze seats".
MCA is a BN component.
"If BN and MCA join or cooperate with PN, Gerakan will be doomed to contest seats that everyone knows it cannot win.
"It means Gerakan will have to contest 'kamikaze seats'.
"This is because MCA will go for Malay-majority seats, which means Gerakan will have to face DAP in Chinese-dominated seats," he said.
Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst Professor Dr Sivamurugan Pandian shared the same view, saying that Gerakan would have a better chance if PN stuck to its current composition.
Aside from Gerakan, PN comprises Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, Pas and Sabah-based parties, such as Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (Star) and Parti Progresif Sabah (SAPP).
"As it is, the seats are limited.
"All parties already have their respective seats to defend, and it is not going to be easy for Gerakan to bargain with the others (in BN).
"But with the current composition (in PN), Bersatu and Pas will go for Malay-majority seats while Star and SAPP will focus on Sabah, which means Gerakan has plenty of seats in the peninsula to contest," he said.
Aside from the seat allocation issue, Sivamurugan said Gerakan needed to explain to its supporters why it joined a political pact that contained Pas.
Given that Gerakan has been vocal on Pas for many years, he said the multiracial party must convince its members and supporters that all was well now.
"Most importantly, and this is what many people are wondering — what is Gerakan's present direction? Party leaders need to be clear on this, too."
Sivamurugan said Gerakan could put up a good fight in Penang if it could prove that it had been serving the people there despite losing the state in 2008.
On winning Penang back, Universiti Utara Malaysia's Professor Dr Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani said this would depend on the Chinese voters as the community was more dominant there.
"Usually, Chinese voters will wait until the last minute to consider all options.
"If DAP performs badly while at the same time Gerakan continues its groundwork, Gerakan may have a chance (to win seats)."
However, Azizuddin said without each other, BN and PN would be at a disadvantage.
"One coalition against another means there is a 50-50 chance of winning. But three or more will create uncertainties.
"This means, no one can predict whether it will be BN or PN or Pakatan Harapan that will win.
"But in the end, it goes back to the pact's strategy and strength.
"If a coalition could employ the best strategy, then that political pact would become the strongest."
