TODAY, we'll take a look at the global lithium reserves and the increasing demand for the material by the electric vehicle (EV) industry.
As it stands, the global lithium reserves are estimated to be around 39 million tonnes, with Chile, Australia, Argentina and China having the lion's share.
Lithium is a key component of the batteries that are used in EVs and as renewable (RE) energy storage. Based on current projections, it is estimated that the world will need around 240 million tonnes of lithium by 2030.
This is more than six times the estimated current global lithium reserves. This rapid increase in demand is driven by the growing popularity of EVs and other RE initiatives.
While 240 million tonnes may seem impossible to meet given the current global reserves, we need to understand that the global reserves are simply how much lithium we think we can mine in those places that we already know to have the mineral deposits.
For comparison, let us take a look at the automotive industry as it was being born and another industry that is intertwined with cars, which is the oil industry.
The oil industry and the car industry have been interconnected since the late 19th century. In 1885, the first successful internal combustion engine was invented by Karl Benz and it ran on alcohol, although the preferred fuel of choice quickly switched to petrol.
The oil industry itself was still in its infancy when the Benz Patent Three Wheeler burst into the scene; The modern oil industry began in the mid-19th century, with the first successful well drilled in Pennsylvania in 1859.
It is interesting to note that the first oil well was successfully drilled by Edwin Drake and the breakthrough in drilling technology was due to the invention of the steam engine-driven rotary drill, which made it possible to drill deeper and more efficiently than the previous manual methods.
In a way, the steam engine helped to accelerate its own demise by helping the oil industry find more oil. By the early 20th century, cars became more popular and the demand for petroleum had grown exponentially, leading to the boom in the oil industry.
The development of the car industry happened in parallel with advances in oil extraction technology and reinforced each other, as demand allowed for more exploration and drilling while more oil meant car companies could build more powerful machines.
In 1908, Henry Ford introduced the Model T that took the world by storm and at that time, the known oil reserve stood at 2.5 billion barrels with production at 235 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the Model T was so popular that by 1915, more than a million units had been sold.
If reserves remained fixed and oil production continued at 1910 rate, we probably would have run out of the dino juice before the roaring 1920s ended and we wouldn't be driving cars today.
Thankfully, that is not how reserves work.
The increasing demand for oil attracted more investment into the industry and this, in turn, caused an oil boom in the early 1900s that led to the discovery of new oil fields around the world.
While global oil reserves at the start of the 20th century were estimated at 2.5 billion barrels, the advancement of oil extraction technology and the discovery of new sources allowed the global reserves to grow with time.
By 2010, the estimated global oil reserves were 1.4 trillion barrels and just 10 years later, another 200 billion barrels were discovered in rocks.
According to United Kingdom researchers who published their finding in the International Journal of Oil, Gas and Coal Technology, the amount of oil we had extracted since modern drilling began might be a lot more than we thought.
Earlier numbers seemed to suggest that we could have extracted 135 billion barrels of oil but John Jones of the School of Engineering, at the University of Aberdeen suggested that the figures were likely to be much higher.
In 2005, the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre in London provided a total figure of almost one trillion barrels of crude oil (944 billion barrels) since commercial drilling began.
But even that figure did not add up, argued Jones.
The huge amount of oil that has been extracted since 1910 is an indication of how much we can extract once the technology and investment is in place.
Similarly, lithium and other mineral extraction activities will benefit from additional investment and just as it happened with oil, the amount we can extract will increase while the cost will likely decrease.
More importantly, the world is looking at an industry revolving around sustainability and EV manufacturers will likely put in place measures that will ensure mineral extraction will adhere to similar principles.
Undoubtedly, in the early years, we can expect higher environmental impact as the existing industry tries to cope with increasing demand without access to new technology.
However, this will likely change in the future, especially if all parties involved are sincere in the application of environmental, social and governance parameters in order to comply with global sustainability goals.
So, just how much lithium can we expect to find on Earth? A quick Internet search indicated that it was the 33rd most abundant element on the planet, more common than tin (50th).
So, there just may be more lithium out there waiting to be unearthed.
