KUALA LUMPUR: Pharmaniaga Bhd could likely achieve a sales volume of about 4.5 million doses of Sinovac distribution to the private sector by the first half (1H) this year, according to CGS-CIMB Research.
The supply could be distributed under the National Covid-19 Immunisation Programme from mid-February and potentially export markets with the likelihood of concession extension.
"Based on unchanged average selling price (ASP) of about RM60 per dose, we bake in RM270 million Sinovac revenue contribution in the financial year ending December 31, 2022 (FY22) with an estimated up to RM22 million profit after-tax contribution," CGS-CIMB Research said in a note today.
This was based on assumptions between 8.0 per cent and 10 per cent margin, representing 24 per cent to 30 per cent net profit for FY22.
However, CGS-CIMB Research did not assume more Sinovac sales from the second half of 2022, pending potential new supply agreements.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Health's (MoH) in-principle extension of Pharmaniaga's concession for ten years from January 2022 is in line with CGS-CIMB Research's expectations and bode well for logistics and distribution revenue by 67 per cent of FY22.
This can be done via the agreement terms that have yet to be finalised.
CGS-CIMB Research reiterated an Add call with a lower target price of 90 sen while raising Pharmaniaga's core earnings per share by 37 per cent after factoring in higher Sinovac contribution.
However, Pharmaniaga could benefit from the ongoing Covid-19 vaccine rollouts in Malaysia and regionally.
Pharmaniaga posted its highest ever net profit of RM172.15 million for FY21, increasing by over sixfold from RM27.49 million a year ago.
Malaysia's leading pharmaceutical company said this came on the back of a 77 per cent surge in revenue to RM4.82 billion from RM2.72 billion previously.
Pharmaniaga said the surge was mainly due to the supply of the Sinovac Covid-19 vaccine to MoH and the private sector, followed by higher contributions from the group's concession, non-concession and Indonesian operations.
For the fourth quarter (Q4), the company registered a net profit of RM85.48 million from a net loss of RM6.33 million last year.
Revenue increased 12 per cent to RM712 million from RM635 million in the previous corresponding quarter mainly due to the growth across the concession, non-concession and Indonesian businesses.
