HIS name is not on the ballot, but Indonesia's wildly popular President Joko Widodo, or Jokowi, looms large over today's election in the world's third-largest democracy, and nowhere more than in his home province of Central Java.
Campaign posters plastered along the riverside in provincial capital Semarang proclaim "Jokowi Chooses Gerindra" — a reference not to the president's own political party but that of his erstwhile rival, Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto.
Jokowi officially has not endorsed anyone in the race to succeed him, but his son's status as Prabowo's running mate is widely presumed as a presidential seal of approval.
After serving the maximum two terms, Jokowi will step down this October, but with an 80 per cent approval rating he holds huge sway over Indonesia's 205 million voters.
Prabowo, who lost to Jokowi in the last two presidential elections, holds a commanding lead this time, with analysts crediting perceived backing by the incumbent — a phenomenon some call "the Jokowi effect".
The effect is particularly pronounced in Central Java, where former governor Ganjar Pranowo — once seen as Jokowi's natural successor — has all but lost his home advantage.
The turning point came when Prabowo added Jokowi's 36-year-old son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, to his ticket, said Kennedy Muslim, an analyst from polling institute Indikator Politik.
"That single consequential manoeuvre has paid off handsomely in the polls for the last three months in boosting Prabowo's support," Kennedy said, describing a "drastic migration of Jokowi loyalists".
It's unclear if Prabowo's double-digit lead over Ganjar and former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan will deliver the over 50 per cent votes needed to avoid a runoff, though recent polls put him in a strong position.
A year ago, the election frontrunner was the photogenic Ganjar — a member of Jokowi's Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) hoping to mirror his path from hard-working provincial chief to leader of Southeast's Asia biggest economy.
But in recent months, that picture radically altered as Jokowi appeared to shift closer to Prabowo amid reports of a rift between the president and PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Sukarnoputri.
Since Prabowo controversially named Jokowi's son as his running mate in October, Ganjar's ratings in the Javanese heartland have plunged 30 points to 38 per cent from 68 per cent, while Prabowo's popularity has now eclipsed his.
"The sudden collapse of Ganjar's poll numbers, even in Central Java and East Java, is also because of this Jokowi effect," said Kennedy, "demonstrating how powerful and consequential Jokowi's influence is... the ultimate kingmaker."
"Blood is thicker than political parties," said Sudaryono, the head of Prabowo's party in Central Java.
Agus, a 50-year-old who runs a market stall in Semarang, said: "When people see Gibran, they see Jokowi. If Gibran wasn't there, Prabowo would drop for sure."
Prabowo has undeniably run a savvy campaign, swapping former nationalistic tirades for cute dances and adopting the nickname gemoy, meaning cute and cuddly.
At a carnival-like campaign in Tegal city, Central Java, complete with live music, door prizes and bouncy castles, hundreds of fans in baby-blue shirts featuring Prabowo's AI-avatar braved the piercing heat to attend.
"I like his free food for school children programme," said Isnaeni, a 28-year-old mother of two.
"Prabowo loves the people."
Nevertheless, Jokowi's implicit support has been crucial, said analyst Kevin O'Rourke.
"Jokowi has been a gigantic factor. Mostly it's just about him. And he has a formula that makes him popular: low inflation, social service spending and infrastructure development, and a disposition that people like," he said.
Observers have pointed to a worrying democratic backslide in Indonesia, but Prabowo's alleged dark past and criticism of dynastic politics appear to matter little at the grassroots, where millions identify with Jokowi's humble persona and attention to ordinary Indonesians.
When the constitutional court, at the time headed by the president's brother-in-law, changed the age-eligibility rules that enabled Gibran to run for vice president, an online outcry did not trigger mass street protests.
Sudaryono, from Prabowo's party, said many Indonesians were drawn to the defence minister's pledge of "continuity" of Jokowi's policies.
The writer is from Reuters
