A motorcyclist passing by a billboard with a Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) logo in Petra Jaya recently. -NSTP/NADIM BOKHARI
A motorcyclist passing by a billboard with a Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) logo in Petra Jaya recently. -NSTP/NADIM BOKHARI

With the Covid-19-related state of emergency in Sarawak finally lifted, the state of political suspended animation since June 7 this year when the state assembly's current five-year term ran its course is over.

The lifting of the emergency was immediately followed by an announcement that the expired legislative term now officially translates into the legislature's dissolution.

The Election Commission, therefore, has 60 days from the dissolution to call a fresh state election for a new batch of 82 assembly members.

There are several reasons to regard this as a particularly note-worthy state election, the 12th since 1963.

The most significant of these is that an opposition party, Parti Sarawak Bersatu or PSB (though not a united opposition front) is likely to contest all 82 seats, going head-to-head with both the incumbent coalition in power, Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) — comprising Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS), Sarawak United Peoples' Party (SUPP) and Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) — and the opposing Sarawak Pakatan Harapan (PKR, DAP and Amanah).

There will thus be three-cornered contests among the three political blocs, though multi-cornered fights are likely in almost all constituencies.

Most of the focus will be centred on these three blocs as the other parties and possible independent candidates stand little to no chance of winning.

However, it should be interesting to observe if some of these smaller parties, which either implicitly or explicitly advocate a course towards political independence, can gain any traction.

Significant as well and perhaps in keeping with all the political noise about greater state autonomy, this election heralds a debut for GPS, which used to be the Sarawak Barisan Nasional (BN) until it decided to cut links with the national BN after the latter lost power in 2018.

For this reason, the possibility of parties linked to Perikatan Nasional (Bersatu and Pas) contesting appears slim, especially if they hope GPS will carve out some seats for them.

This will also be a debut election for Chief Minister Datuk Patinggi Abang Johari Openg, since he assumed office after Tan Sri Adenan Satem died less than a year after winning the last state election.

This election will be GPS' to lose. The chances of it losing are, however, almost zero. That said, Adenan's 2016 triumph may have been the high-water mark for the ruling coalition.

It was good vibes generated by him which propelled SUPP to a better-than-expected performance against DAP. SUPP may be hard-put to retain all the seats it won then.

Similarly, eyes will be on how good PSB proves in making any dent on GPS' overall seats tally, particularly the Dayak-majority seats held by PBB's Pesaka wing, PRS, PDP and SUPP.

A decent showing by PSB and the opposition as a whole may cut into GPS' majority in the new assembly, but not destabilise it.

What is less certain is whether an improved performance by the opposition will threaten Abang Johari's grip at the pinnacle of PBB and with it, the chief ministership.

This election, therefore, may be more about the chief minister's stewardship of the state government than a test of GPS' continued hold on power.

This being also an election held under the shadow of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, it may likewise turn on public perceptions about how well the state has managed its impact as well as over voter turnout out of fear of catching the virus.

The dangers of serious illness and death posed by any infection have quite dramatically abated due to the state's high vaccination rate, covering almost its entire population.

But any further dramatic infection upsurge between now and polling day may dampen voting enthusiasm.

In summary, this may be another state election where the outcome (the incumbent government returned to power) may be pre-ordained.

The only real question that this election will answer is how resounding the margin of victory may turn out to be.


The writer views developments in the nation, region and wider world from his vantage point in Kuching, Sarawak