KUALA LUMPUR: Analysts project a difficult road ahead for BN-PH in winning the Nenggiri state by-election on Aug 17, but achieving victory could mark a watershed moment for Umno.
"There is still a good chance for them, given the slim majorities in 2018 and 2023, but I think it's challenging because the swing towards Pas was driven by young voters dissatisfied with Umno," said International Islamic University, associate professor of political science, Syaza Shukri.
The Nenggiri state constituency was previously held by ex-Bersatu Gua Musang division head Mohd Azizi Abu Naim before the seat was declared vacant in June by Kelantan State Assembly Speaker Datuk Mohd Amar Nik Abdullah. This decision followed Azizi's declaration of support for Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim in November last year.
Azizi won the Nenggiri seat during the Kelantan state elections in 2023, beating incumbent Ab Aziz Yusoff from Umno.
Meanwhile, IIUM assistant professor, Dr Lau Zhe Wei, said Umno has no hopes of retaking Nenggiri but that does not necessarily have to be the party's goal in the Kelantan local seat.
"As long as the party can perform better than previous elections, it is good enough. It will show that Umno is getting back support", he told the New Straits Times.
"Nenggiri is the best chance for PH-BN to demonstrate that Pas is not that formidable and Kelantan can be punctured", said Prof Dr Azmi Hassan, geostrategist and senior fellow at the Nusantara Strategic Research Academy (NURA).
"It might not be a gamechanger but it would create a hole in Pas' influence in the state", he said.
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia political analyst, Dr Ainul Adzellie Hasnul, is optimistic about Umno's chances but only if they field the right candidate.
"This was the historical stronghold for Umno, especially with Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah as MP of Gua Musang. His influence is huge, paving the way for a comeback", he said.
On Thursday, Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi had confirmed receiving a list of three prospective candidates for the Nenggiri state by-election and discussions have been held with Tengku Razaleigh, who is Gua Musang Umno division chief.
"It will not affect the Pas-dominated state assembly but, by giving a chance for Umno to represent PH-BN in Kelantan, where Pakatan Harapan may not be as strong," said Adzellie.
Mohd Azizi is also MP of Gua Musang, a seat being examined by Dewan Rakyat Speaker Johari Abdul following a notice to vacate the seat by Bersatu alongside Bukit Gantang, Tanjong Karang, Labuan, Jeli, and Kuala Kangsar.
While the Gua Musang seat is yet to be vacated, in the event that it is, performance in Nenggiri would reflect the odds for that election.
"If Umno wins, or more importantly Bersatu loses, the chances of PH-BN capturing Gua Musang would be more positive," Azmi said.
Syaza agreed but not merely because of Umno's history in the district, adding, "It is because of a domino effect by voters watching other voters, especially if elections are held close to one another."
